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Forum:2011 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season
Welcome Because this is the first basin to have anything this year, here's to a fine start to this forum! Ryan1000 23:15, January 18, 2011 (UTC) South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Wilma New storm out there. It isn't named yet, but it's forecast to become Wilma by later today or tomorrow. Forecast to round the Samoan Islands and become a category one while heading southward out to sea. Ryan1000 14:30, January 22, 2011 (UTC) :Now it's Wilma. Forecast to soak up Samoa and become a category one while heading out to sea. I'll return if any unexpected things happen with this thing. Ryan1000 17:29, January 22, 2011 (UTC) Eh, nothing unexpected, just about to turn south past the islands and head out to sea as a category one. Ryan1000 13:50, January 23, 2011 (UTC) :Whoops, it suddenly jumped up to a cat. 2, the same general strength as Zelia. It's heading for New Zeland, their second hit in a season. It also smacked Tonga pretty good, and delayed a vacation from Zeland's prime minister there. Ryan1000 20:37, January 25, 2011 (UTC) ::Whoop! Category 4 storm 135 mph and 940 mbars. Wilma coud now thrash New Zeland even more than she previously could have. Ryan1000 21:16, January 26, 2011 (UTC) :Aaaand it's gone, or just about is, but it could still cause some flooding in New Zeland. Ryan1000 20:38, January 28, 2011 (UTC) Now its gone. Yqt1001 18:04, January 29, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Yasi Seems another one is heading for Australia. Its in the south pacific now, really close to the west edge of this area, so I'll post it here. Anyways, looks like its going to head for the exact spot Anthony is heading. Expected to reach cat 1 strength on its way. Yqt1001 03:36, January 30, 2011 (UTC) It's been named! Now up to Cat 1 on the Australian scale. I hope this doesn't follow Anthony, Queensland could really do without another disaster. HurricaneFiona 11:24, January 30, 2011 (UTC) :Yasi is currently following up behind Anthony, but Yqt, the major problem with this one is, unlike Anthony and Tasha earlier this season, Yasi isn't forecast to just become a 1, it's forecast to hit 120 mph 3 days from now. See the track from Unisys. A category 3 or stronger cyclone spells bad news for Queensland... Just ask Larry of March 2006. Australia's last monster Cyclone was Laurence in December 2009. Lawrence smashed the northern coast of Australia twice as a category 4 storm, causing tremendous damage but fortunately no loss of life. Hopefully Yasi won't be so bad as either of those storms... The other problem is it will pick up speed on the way... Yasi could hit a forward speed of 20 mph by the time it reaches Australia. Ryan1000 14:49, January 30, 2011 (UTC) ::Wow! Once again, the track when I posted this was completely wrong in just 10 hours! Not surprised, when I looked at the shear, it was REALLY LOW in the area Yasi is heading into in a few hours and pretty low well all over the basin, I wouldn't be surprised if it exploded like Bianca, just because of the warmer SSTs in that area. Yqt1001 15:27, January 30, 2011 (UTC) :::If Yasi can pick up enough speed before making landfall, then if we get lucky, we won't have a storm stronger than a three by that time. If Yasi fails to pick up speed, then it could become a category 4 or 5 cyclone by the time it hits. And if that happens, Yasi could be the worst cyclone Queensland has ever seen. I don't want this one to become a monster, but it just appears that Yasi may become a powerful major hurricane soon and wreck up the area around Insfail, like Larry did 5 years ago. Ryan1000 15:34, January 30, 2011 (UTC) ::::Still better then hitting a larger city like Brisbane. Though it could easily be the worst cyclone ever to hit Queensland, especially if it gets up to cat 4 or 5 before landfall. Still doubt that would make the news here. Yqt1001 15:41, January 30, 2011 (UTC) :::Well, the slightest turn in the path can make all the difference between life and death. I don't believe it will hit a big city like Brisbane, and in order to do that, Yasi will have to take a sharp southernly dive like Hamismh in 2008, but not turning back out to sea. However, a medium-sized city like Townsville or Innisfail isn't a good landfall location for a cyclone like Yasi either. Stay tuned on Yasi. He probrably won't be so kind to the residents of that area... Ryan1000 16:01, January 30, 2011 (UTC) Well, now expected to peak at category 4. Not looking too good. Yqt1001 06:03, January 31, 2011 (UTC) : I don't like this thing one bit. It's huge, forecast to strengthen, heading straight for Queensland, is over very warm sea surface temperatures and has been said that it might be "the worst cyclone in Australia's history." I would not like to be in the path of this thing. It's catagory 3 on the Australian scale, as of now. HurricaneFiona 16:37, January 31, 2011 (UTC) ::I don't like the looks of Yasi either. There are fears that it could be the worst cyclone in the history of Queensland, but in the entire country? Cyclone Mahina of 1899 hit bathurst bay in Queensland in that year. It caused an unconfirmed storm surge estimated to be 40 feet high, and was ranked as a category 5 cyclone. It killed 400 people in Queensland, making it the deadliest natural disaster in Australian history. Yasi isn't currently forecast to become a 5, but it isn't out of the question at all... And I highly doubt Yasi will kill 400 or so people. Australia is like Mexico for cyclones. They are very well prepared, and high death tolls are uncommon there. The Unisys track keeps on changing, and now Yasi is expected to become a powerful category 4 cyclone, with winds of up to 145 mph. It is currently forecast to head in the same direction as Larry, but a little further south, between Innisfail and Townsville. Innisfail was smashed up by Larry in 2006, but the big problem with Yasi is, as I mentioned earlier, the slightest turn can mean the difference between life and death. Innisfail and Townsville are the main two cities in Jeopardy from Yasi. Innisfail was hit hard by Larry in 2006, but in 2006, and up to today, only 6 or 7 thousand people live there. It isn't a giant city, and Larry, despite the damage there, could have been much worse if it hit Townsville which, on the other hand, is Australia's largest metropolitan area north of the sunshine coast. Up to 190,000 people live in Townsville, which is nearly 30 times as much as Innisfail. 30 times as much! I shudder and fear of what Queensland will look like this Wensday. Yasi is currently forecast to hit north of the Townsville area, but if it manages to veer farther south of it's predicted path, then Townsville could look the same way Innisfail did in March 2006, and I do not want to see that happen. Even so, Yasi will likely be much worse than Larry because it is much, much, much larger. Larry was a Charley-like cyclone for Queensland. This storm could be a Katrina or Wilma-like storm for Queensland. Larry was 60 or so miles across. Yasi is currently 300 miles across and it's still getting bigger. This could be the worst cyclone Queensland has ever seen. Even if it does miss Townsville to the north, that will just make things worse because unlike northern hemisphere storms, this storm is spinning clockwise. Therefore, this monster storm will do it's worst in the bottom-left quadrant of it's landfall location, the opposite of the upper-right quadrant that we are used to seeing with northern hemisphere storms. This thing is not looking good at all. You can see this news article from ABC to see just how massive and powerful Yasi is. Hopefully the people in Queensland are getting out by now... Ryan1000 21:42, January 31, 2011 (UTC) AAAND, now a major. Third of the year, expected to slow down prior to landfall and during landfall, keeps getting worse and worse for Queensland. Expected to make landfall just north of Innisfail, not looking too good at all. Look slike a Larry repeat after all Yqt1001 03:02, February 1, 2011 (UTC) Reached Catagory 4. What are the chances of this thing reaching catagory 5 before landfall? HurricaneFiona 16:42, February 1, 2011 (UTC) :I'm thinking pretty good, because. 1) VERY very low wind shear, 2) no land interaction, 3) most of Yasi is still over very warm SSTs, 4) Developed an eye, finally, so I would think it could become a cat 5, I wouldnt be too surprised, it has 140mph winds, still a day or two from landfall anything is possible especially if it hasnt touched land yet. (also every day it has jumped up one category)Yqt1001 17:33, February 1, 2011 (UTC) ::Winds now up to 150mph..looking pretty impressive, and deadly. Yqt1001 22:43, February 1, 2011 (UTC) :Not at all is isn't good for the people there. My fear on Yasi is that it's track will kepp on shifting further south and it does end up just north of the Townsville area. I'm expecting Yasi to hit south of where Larry did, and per that Innisfail should get off easy for the storm surge. It is expected to have a storm surge up to 4 meters high, or higher. Yasi has a very good chance to hit category 5 before it's landfall by tomorrow. My worst fear is that it does end up making landfall just north of Townsville and does end up delivering the worst of it's up to 20 foot storm surge there. Queensland is gonna have a helluva ride tommorow evening. There are mandatory evacuations for parts of the state, particularly the area around Townsville, where the worst of the surge is expected to hit. Hopefully the evacuations will signifigantly limit the loss of life. Brace yourselves, Aussie. Here she comes! Ryan1000 23:13, February 1, 2011 (UTC) ::And... it is upgraded to a category 5 on the Australian scale now. Yasi is a downright massive monster. This 400 mile wide armageddon cyclone will crush everything in it's path. However, it isn't a category 5 on our scale yet, but that isn't out of the question... Yasi will hit tomorrow night, and it could bring with it a storm surge of over 20 feet and winds that could be in excess of 155 mph. Yasi will hit between Innisfail and Cairns; Townsville may have appeared to have lucked out, but Yasi will destroy any poorly-built structures in the area it does hit nontheless. Yasi is also going to bring it's worst surge south of it's landfall location. Townsville isn't out of the woods yet, but there's reason to be optimistic based on Yasi's current track. It's strongest winds are also a threat; the problem with Yasi's strongest winds is that they are behind the circulation, so if these people think it will be gone by then, they'll need to think again. Hopefully everyone has been evacuated today... Ryan1000 01:30, February 2, 2011 (UTC) Eye has now made landfall, wow Yasi is huuuge! 155 mph winds, 5mph off of Cat 5 in the Atlantic scale. Made landfall just south of Innisfail, but Townsville-Cairns will be affected, however pretty much Mackay-most northern point of Australia is being hit by it. I dont think the outcome will be good at all, Yasi is just a massive storm ready to rampage down on a long, relatively populated stretch of land. Yqt1001 15:45, February 2, 2011 (UTC) :Well, Yasi was a category 5 on Australia's standard's, but the problem is, even though the storm made landfall south of Innisfail, that spelled bad news for the people of the city of Townsville. Although Yasi missed them to the north, that just made the city bear the brunt of Yasi's massive 30-foot storm surge. That's higher than Katrina's, even. Yasi spared Innisfail from the storm surge because it missed them to the south, but they had to suffer the full force of Yasi's winds and heaviest rains. Yasi is likely to be a huge multi-billion dollar storm. I'm going to be updating the part I made on Yasi in the "Retirements at a Glance" section very soon. Hopefully the loss of life has been really low, if none, in the area it made landfall. This thing should be dying out very rapidly by now. Ryan1000 21:28, February 2, 2011 (UTC) No deaths have been reported so far, thank God. The Govenment really did a good job there, getting most people to evacuate. We don't know the damage figures yet, but in terms of loss of life, this wasn't as bad as it could've been. HurricaneFiona 16:16, February 3, 2011 (UTC) :Well, I wasn't expecting a severe death toll from Yasi. As I mentioned, Australia is very well prepared for hurricanes, and they know how to save people there from these storms. It has been a long time since a cyclone was deadly for Australia (Tracy). However, Yasi's enormus storm surge and long-lasting winds had made it far costlier than her. Currently the initial reports are 3.5 billion, and because it is only a day after it's landfall, it's most likely way too low of an estimate. Tracy caused 4 billion in today's dollars, but it was a very small storm and was extremly lucky to hit Darwin on Christmas day in 1974. It was the second deadliest cyclone in Australian history, with 71 people dead after the storm passed. Ryan1000 21:15, February 3, 2011 (UTC) Yasi has lost all its tropical characteristics. I would also expect way more damage then 3.5bill, but an accurate damage amount might not come for a while (ex. Mitch) Yqt1001 23:13, February 3, 2011 (UTC) :Even so, Yasi, despite the tremendous damages, was responsible for only one death(indirectly) on it's path through Australia. This storm may have been Queensland's worst cyclone in history, but the death toll was surprisingly low in the area Yasi hit. It more than certainly will become retired; Yqt and Fiona, the "retirements at a glance" section is open for retirement calls if you want to make some on this forum's storms. Although it's pretty clear Yasi is the only one that is definitely going out.Ryan1000 21:18, February 4, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Zaka Just numbered a short while back. I haven't a current track on this storm or intensity yet, but it could become Zaka pretty soon. The South Pacific is really rollin on this year; this is their 4th storm in less than a month, but the SWIO and AUS regions are quite far behind thus far. They should be much more active than where they are now. Ryan1000 14:30, February 5, 2011 (UTC) :It's now a depression. It's near the Tonga area and appears to be heading for the American Samoa and the Cook Islands, but who knows how strong it will be when it gets there... Hopefully it won't pull an Olaf or a Percy, both of which were category 5 cyclones from the 2005 season. Ryan1000 13:46, February 6, 2011 (UTC) And now it's Zaka. It appears it was heading east-southeast all this time... And it probrably won't become much of anything, but it may turn further south pretty soon and be New Zeland's 3rd hit in less than a month. It's several hundred miles south-southwest of Fiji, and it's heading east-southeast slowly. It's currently a category one on the Australian scale, and it isn't expected to become a Yasi-like storm by any means. Ryan1000 16:19, February 6, 2011 (UTC) Australia Tropical Cyclone Anthony Currently a TS, but Anthony could roll towards Australia by tommorow or Tuesday. I don't know if anyone will pay attention here other than me, but because the southern hemisphere is the only basin that's spitting out storms, for now, we should pay attention to this basin. Ryan1000 13:50, January 23, 2011 (UTC) :Aaaand it's gone... Ryan1000 20:38, January 25, 2011 (UTC) ...Or is it? Apparently Anthony unexpectedly came back to us today, and it's now forecast to make a landfall on Western Australia. However, because it's only a TS, it probrably won't be so bad for the Area around Insfail or Townsville... Ryan1000 00:01, January 30, 2011 (UTC) :Aaaand now it made landfall. It should go away by tomorrow. Ryan1000 14:53, January 30, 2011 (UTC) ::Fully gone now. Yqt1001 18:00, January 31, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Bianca Well, this thing is a new system off of Australia's west coast forecast to become a category one and stay out to sea. Some rain here or there, but Bianca isn't expected to threaten land. Ryan1000 20:38, January 25, 2011 (UTC) :Bit lonely? (Also a bit bored, never seen anyone truly update these other seasons often... :P ) Anywas now forecasted to become a category 2, still expected to stay out at sea. This season (the southern hemisphere) is getting off to a pretty good start..3 active cyclones for the past few days. Yqt1001 03:25, January 26, 2011 (UTC) Well, yes, I feel a bit lonely here, but even so, as I mentioned, since it's the first season to actually spit out anything, we might as well pay attention here for the time being, just for the fun of it. I mean, although the Atlantic forum is usually the most visited, the SHem is always the first to kick it off. And Yqt? A good start? Good start my ass. This year's SHem season is one of the least active i've ever seen. We had two storms last year and this is our fourth this year in Australia's region, but the Southern Pacific has gotten out to only two named storms thus far. They should be up to 5 or 6 by now, not two. SWIO is the same. Their only named storm right now is Abele, and they should be up to 5 or 6 storms by now. This might mark near-record inactivity if this holds for that basin. If the Pacific Hurricane and Typhoon seasons go out at this rate, then we could have 3 consecutive years in which worldwide, the tropical cyclone basins failed out. BTW, Wilma is now a powerful category 4 storm. Winds have hit 135 mph and it's pressure is 940 mbars. Also, Bianca is expected to recurve off of the east coast of Australia and we could have it heading toward Perth, which was formerly hit pretty hard by Cyclone Alby in March 1978. Ryan1000 21:06, January 26, 2011 (UTC) :Well this is my first year tracking the SHem seasons...so I had no clue what I was talking about...though i couldve looked up what I said...See look I'm just that much smarter! Yqt1001 22:29, January 26, 2011 (UTC) Ha Ha, that was funny. But again, the SHem in general isn't where it should be at it's time it is right now. They are well behind their normal schedule, but the're the first to have any storms out there, so we might as well do this. The activity on the Wikia can never end exept in parts of May, if you include the SHem seasons. Ryan1000 00:14, January 27, 2011 (UTC) :Looks like Bianca is going directly for Perth now. Yqt1001 20:24, January 27, 2011 (UTC) ::Well, even so, knowing it will only be a minimal TS when it comes into there, I can't say the impacts will be severe there. Perth got hit pretty hard by Alby in 1974, but that storm could have been much worse had it not missed the southwestern tip of Australia. Cyclone Ned in 1989 also passed near Perth, but it was pretty much nothing by then. Bianca isn't probrably going to do anything other than soak up the area, but it won't be a destructive event, I think. Ryan1000 20:54, January 27, 2011 (UTC) Bianca was only supposed to become a cat 1, but now forecasted to become the second major of the year. Still going towards perth as a tropical storm. Yqt1001 04:20, January 28, 2011 (UTC) :You spoke to soon, Yqt. Bianca is now a powerful category 4 storm, with winds of 135 mph and 945 mbars. A repeat of Alby might not be out of the question after all. Bianca is currently off of Australia's west coast, but if it picks up fast enough in speed, Bianca could hit Perth as a very strong TS or even a minimal hurricane-strength cyclone. Here's hoping it won't be so bad... Ryan1000 20:35, January 28, 2011 (UTC) ::Wow, wasnt expecting that! Down to a category 1 now (lasted even shorter than Julia! Who also exploded on low SSTs), not even expected to make it to Perth now. If it does, it wont even be a tropical storm. Yqt1001 21:53, January 28, 2011 (UTC) :Yeah, I never really saw that coming either. Reminds me of Hurricane Darby of last year a bit. It exploded into a category 3 briefly, and all of a sudden, hours later, it's barely alive at all. Weird things from mother nature... Anyways, yeah, Bianca's pretty much dying out by now. Hard for me to believe this happened but it did. Ryan1000 01:50, January 29, 2011 (UTC) ::Aaaand it's gone. Didn't even reach the coastline. Perth got off easy from Bianca, but it's remnants may still cause minor flooding in the area. Ryan1000 15:01, January 30, 2011 (UTC) Retirements at a Glance So far, what are your retirement predictions for the SHem? Here are mine(including last-year's storms) Australia: *Anggrek - 0% - What did this thing do again? *Tasha - 30% - Australia is pretty generous when it comes to retirements, but they might be overexaggerating with this one. *Vince - 0% - See Anggrek. *Zelia - 10% - Knocked up New Zeland a bit, but they have gone through much worse. *Anthony - 10% - Washed up Queensland, but went largely unnotable. *Bianca - 1% - First major of the year, but other than threatening Perth and exploding over unfavorable conditions like Julia, nothing much came from this one. South Pacific: *Vania - 5% - Soaked up New Caledonia, but that island has gone through so much worse. *Wilma - 5% - It caused some damage on the American Samoa and later hit New Zeland after Zelia, but it wasn't so bad... *Yasi - 100% - Crushed northern Queensland, at least 3.5 billion in damages, and the costliest cyclone in AUS history are the main reasons why this name just isn't gonna stick around for more. These are my current calls on the retirements thus far; of course, the SWIO never has "retired names", so they're excluded here. Ryan1000 21:32, February 2, 2011 (UTC)